Do polls actually predict election results? #finsubito agevolazioni

Yes. I mean…no.

This video might possibly drive you crazy. I know it drove me crazy researching it.

Produced by Matt Beat.

Sources/further reading:
https://theweek.com/politics/2024-election-polls-accuracy
https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2024/08/28/key-things-to-know-about-us-election-polling-in-2024/
https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2016/09/08/understanding-the-margin-of-error-in-election-polls/

Why Was The National Polling Environment So Off In 2020?

https://www.statisticshowto.com/probability-and-statistics/hypothesis-testing/margin-of-error/
https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/resources/data-science/non-sampling-error/

Join this channel to get access to perks:
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCmYesELO6axBrCuSpf7S9DQ/join

For business inquiries or to send snail mail to Mr. Beat:
https://www.iammrbeat.com/contact.html
https://www.youtube.com/c/iammrbeat/about

How to support and donate to my channel:
Subscribe to @iammrbeat & hit the notification bell 🔔
Join for great perks on Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/iammrbeat
Donate to Mr. Beat on Paypal: https://www.paypal.me/mrbeat
Buy Mr. Beat a coffee: https://ko-fi.com/iammrbeat
Cameo: https://www.cameo.com/iammrbeat
Subscribe to my second channel: The Beat Goes On
Patreon for The Beat Goes On: https://www.patreon.com/thebeatgoeson

Connect with me:
Links: https://linktr.ee/iammrbeat
Website: https://www.iammrbeat.com/
Podcast: https://anchor.fm/thebeatpod
Reddit: https://www.reddit.com/r/mrbeat/
@beatmastermatt on Twitter: https://twitter.com/beatmastermatt
Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/iammrbeat/
Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/iammrbeat
Beatcord: https://discord.gg/g8cZPjt
TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@iammrbeat

Merch:
https://matt-beat-shop.fourthwall.com/
https://www.bonfire.com/store/mr-beat/

SFSF + Mr. Beat

https://amzn.to/3fdakiZ

Affiliate Links:
Useful Charts: https://usefulcharts.com/?aff=12
Fourthwall: https://link.fourthwall.com/MrBeat
StreamYard: https://streamyard.com/pal/d/5272340869152768

Hey man, got any of that SAWEET polling data? I need me some more delicious polling data. GIVE IT TO ME.

Wait a second, does polling actually predict election results?

Most of the time, yes. Actually. But while polls may give us a GENERAL picture of who will win, they are much less accurate predicting by how much. For example, they generally predicted Joe Biden would win the 2020 presidential election, but they were about 4 percentage points off.

It’s not surprising that polls wouldn’t be completely accurate because any time we conduct polls there’s a margin of error, the range of values below and above a sample statistic to let us know how much a poll could be wrong. Since it’s nearly impossible to poll EVERY SINGLE VOTER before an election, EVERY poll has a sampling error. But there are also non-sampling errors because stuff just goes wrong, man. (list them on screen)

So what does that mean for the upcoming 2024 election? Well, based on polls, it could be extremely close or a landslide victory for Trump or Harris. Oh no.
 

***** l’articolo pubblicato è ritenuto affidabile e di qualità*****

Visita il sito e gli articoli pubblicati cliccando sul seguente link

Source link

Informativa sui diritti di autore

La legge sul diritto d’autore art. 70 consente l’utilizzazione libera del materiale laddove ricorrano determinate condizioni:  la citazione o riproduzione di brani o parti di opera e la loro comunicazione al pubblico sono liberi qualora siano effettuati per uso di critica, discussione, insegnamento o ricerca scientifica entro i limiti giustificati da tali fini e purché non costituiscano concorrenza all’utilizzazione economica dell’opera citata o riprodotta.

Vuoi richiedere la rimozione dell’articolo?

Clicca qui